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每月動向

2021年10月基金投資動向

2021年10月04日

美國聯儲局主席鮑威爾 9月29日出席線上歐洲央行金融論壇發表演說時提到,美國經濟取得強勁的需求,但美國經濟前景存在高度不確定性,供應鏈瓶頸正在拖經濟後腿。恒大債務拖累整體內房表現,市場擔心恒大一旦違約,更會影響金融板塊股價。

美國聯儲局主席鮑威爾 9月29日出席線上歐洲央行金融論壇發表演說時提到,在美國財政政策援助之下,美國經濟取得強勁的需求,但美國經濟前景存在高度不確定性,供應鏈瓶頸正在拖經濟後腿,當前壓力預計將持續至 2022年。聯儲局正暗示11月可能縮減資產購買規模,而鮑威爾在論壇上表示,該局距離加息還很遙遠,目前正謹慎地處理貨幣政策正常化問題。

恒大債務拖累整體內房表現,市場擔心恒大一旦違約,更會影響金融板塊股價。中國股票基金投資者則憂慮投資組合中之內房比重,影響基金資產淨值(NAV)。我們以坊間其中兩隻較為熱賣之基金與中國恒大(股票編號: 3333)表現作比較,舉例截至 9月29日,中國恒大之股價較 8月底下跌了 29.59%,而兩隻基金中,分別是A股基金及消費板塊的股票基金,兩隻基金的價格表現均較中國恒大為佳,期間價格雖亦下調,惟只分別下跌 1.35%及 4.31%。

中港股市表現受內房債務拖累,而美國股市則受政府債務上限困擾。美國財政部長耶倫 9月28日對美國國會表示,美國在10月18日將有可能突破債務上限。她在給眾議院議長佩洛西的一封最新的信中寫道:「不確定我們是否能在那個日期之後繼續履行國家的承諾。」耶倫亦表示,圍繞美國償債能力的不確定性可能令投資者對購買美國國債更加緊張,這將推高納稅人的借貸成本。

市場憂慮變種病毒會再次拖累全球經濟復蘇,分析估計美國聯儲局因而不會急於加息。不過,投資者對於美國眾議院民主黨人在 9月中提出之加稅計劃,確實憂慮。有分析指2021年底前美股最大風險應是稅改,而非經濟趨緩疑慮。其實,拜登競逐總統選舉時的政綱中,加稅是其中一項,當他上任美國總統後,市場早以預計將會有加稅行動。拜登上任後,為應付疫情帶來的經濟影響,曾多次推出多項經濟紓困方案,其後更有巨額基建議案,而美國債務已達 29萬億美元,實在需要增加收入以應付支出及減低債務,因此,加稅似乎是無可避免的。究竟美國的加稅方案會否為美股帶來調整的藉口呢!

中美緊張關係一直受市場關注。中美貿易層面上,美國逆差依然;美國之供應鏈阻斷亦令物價上升;疫情期間,貨物運輸時間受阻及成本增加,更為通脹添上壓力。華為副董事長孟晚舟能夠回到中國,市場憧憬有助改善中美外交關係。中美緊張關係若能獲得緩和,對經濟復甦應是正面訊息。

十月被視為「股災月」,投資者多採取較為審慎之風險管理策略。從股市之市盈率(P/E)而論,歐洲及中港股票較美股吸引,較進取之投資者,可考慮配置;而較為保守的投資者,可增持有現金,伺機入貨。基金由專業投資經理管理,投資組合可以分佈在不同地區、資產、行業、公司等,有助分散風險。客戶如欲查詢有關基金資訊,歡迎致電致富理財熱線: 2500 9188 聯絡我們。

客戶如欲查詢有關基金資訊,歡迎致電致富理財熱線: 2500 9188 聯絡我們。

致富有提供債券、基金一站式投資策略,比供客戶選擇。想知道和了解更多,請即刻聯絡我哋們投資策略專員解答疑難!

WhatsApp : 投資策略專員

更多基金資訊、種類 和 比較:

連結

投資涉及風險,以上建議只作為參考之用。致富在法律上均不負責任何人因使用本報告內資料而蒙受的任何直接或間接損失。以上報告由致富集團研究部的分析員(“此等人士”)所撰寫,此等人士均為香港證監會持牌人士。此外,截至本報告發表當日,此等人士均未於本報告中所推介的股份存有權益。



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上述報告由致富證券有限公司(「本公司」)所提供,所載之內容或意見乃根據本公司認為可靠之資料來源來編製,惟本公司並不就此等內容之準確性、完整性及正確性作出明示或默示之保證。上述報告內之所有意見均可在不作另行通知之下作出更改。上述報告的作用純粹為提供資訊,並不應視為對上述報告內提及的任何產品買賣或交易之專業推介、建議、邀請或要約。本公司及其附屬公司、僱員及其家屬及有關人士可於任何時間持有、買賣或以市場認可之方式,包括以代理人或當事人對本報告內提及的任何產品進行投資或買賣。投資附帶風險,投資者需注意投資項目之價值可升亦可跌,而過往之表現亦不一定反映未來之表現。投資者進行投資前請尋求獨立之投資意見。本公司在法律上均不負責任何人因使用本報告內資料而蒙受的任何直接或間接損失。本公司擁有此報告內容之版權,在未獲本公司許可前,不得翻印、分發或發行本報告以作任何用途。

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