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致富:股災可看4徵兆 中港股市較穏妥

2021年10月08日

10月被認為是傳統股災月,因多次金融危機無獨有偶都在此月份出現,如1987年、1997、及2008年10月都曾出現股市大幅下跌的情況。事實上,投資者不用一踏入10月便聞風喪膽,因自1987年至去年的34年間,只有9個10月出現跌市。今期將分析股災月有哪些徵兆,今年10月股市又有哪些外圍因素值得留意。

10月被認為是傳統股災月,因多次金融危機無獨有偶都在此月份出現,如1987年、1997、及2008年10月都曾出現股市大幅下跌的情況。事實上,投資者不用一踏入10月便聞風喪膽,因自1987年至去年的34年間,只有9個10月出現跌市。今期將分析股災月有哪些徵兆,今年10月股市又有哪些外圍因素值得留意。

致富財富管理部張德明表示,股災前市場上通常會出現4個徵兆,包括普遍股票高市盈率,現時美股三大指數偏高、房價上升、市場資金充裕、以及市場情緒樂觀。他解釋,目前美股市場上資金尚算充裕,部分受低息率影響。此外,即使市場普遍認為美國聯儲局快將「收水」,但相比其他央行,美國暫未有具體加息時間表,只表示最終將視乎當地的通脹及就業數據再作定論,市場料當局將會在11月才收緊貨幣寬鬆政策。因此,料10月市場仍保持樂觀情緒。

有關美股方面,張德明續指,加息將對股票市場造成影響,預期新經濟股股價表現,將較傳統經濟股的反應更大,因為新經濟股大部分債務較多,對利息敏感度較高。再者,息口上升,意味借貸成本上升,企業盈利相對減少,影響股票的市盈率,最後困擾股市。

此外,美國債務上限僵局持續,他直言,預期很大機會最終債務上限能被提高,但認為狀況僵持得愈久,對市場的傷害將愈大。張氏表示,困局若長期持續下去,或令投資者再次關注美國俗稱「雙赤」的財赤和貿赤的經濟頑疾。更甚的是,動搖投資者對美元信心,部分國家央行或進一步減持美元貨幣儲備,改為增持其他資產組合。

港股方面,他指影響市場的負面消息主要是內地有關房屋問題的監管,以及國內政策影響等,但大部分消息已在上月股市表現反映出來,因此對10月股市表現不至於太悲觀,期望內地國慶假期股市重開後,會有資金流入。最後,他指美股不確定因素仍然存在,並建議投資者可部署外匯,或把資金重投中、港股市場,減低投資風險。

致富提供24間基金公司、合共約500隻認可零售基金供投資者選擇。如果大家在自行挑選基金上遇有疑難,歡迎隨時聯繫致富的客戶經理,獲取專業的投資理財建議 按此

投資基金「零」負擔

透過「致富通」應用程式或致富網頁,投資基金「零」負擔,單次認購或月供計劃一律免佣,基金購金額更低至 5,000港元 或 700美元,另購買精選保險享有高達50%折扣優惠。

致富有提供債券、基金一站式投資策略,比供客戶選擇。想知道和了解更多,請即刻聯絡我哋們投資策略專員解答疑難!

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上述報告由致富證券有限公司(「本公司」)所提供,所載之內容或意見乃根據本公司認為可靠之資料來源來編製,惟本公司並不就此等內容之準確性、完整性及正確性作出明示或默示之保證。上述報告內之所有意見均可在不作另行通知之下作出更改。上述報告的作用純粹為提供資訊,並不應視為對上述報告內提及的任何產品買賣或交易之專業推介、建議、邀請或要約。本公司及其附屬公司、僱員及其家屬及有關人士可於任何時間持有、買賣或以市場認可之方式,包括以代理人或當事人對本報告內提及的任何產品進行投資或買賣。投資附帶風險,投資者需注意投資項目之價值可升亦可跌,而過往之表現亦不一定反映未來之表現。投資者進行投資前請尋求獨立之投資意見。本公司在法律上均不負責任何人因使用本報告內資料而蒙受的任何直接或間接損失。本公司擁有此報告內容之版權,在未獲本公司許可前,不得翻印、分發或發行本報告以作任何用途。

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