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每月動向

2021年11月基金投資動向

2021年11月03日

全球貨物供應受疫情影響而受阻,引致物價上漲,美國消費物價指數持續上升。美國聯邦儲備局受到通脹及利率上升影響,將會公布「收水」行動時間表。香港上月股市上升主要是受科技股帶動,內地對科技股沒有推出新的監管措施,令市場鬆一口氣。

上月「股災月」股市並未出現大跌,美國三大主要股市指數: 道指、標指、納指全月分別累升5.84%、6.92%、7.27%;香港恆指及恆生科指亦分別上升3.26%及4.49%。一般投資者之策略都會在9月及10月趨向謹慎,保留實力再伺機出擊。美股能否再創新高……內地股市能否打破停滯不前的局面……而香港股市又能否低位回升……?

全球貨物供應受疫情影響而受阻,引致物價上漲,美國消費物價指數持續上升, 10年期國庫債券孳息率近期在1.5至1.6厘區間徘徊,市場預期利率趨升。美國聯邦儲備局受到通脹及利率上升影響,估計在11月2日至11月3日舉行為期兩天的議息會議後,將會公布「收水」行動時間表。不過,市場似乎已消化「收水」消息,且有分析認為現時的通脹屬暫時性,待物價回落後,加息的壓力便會減少,加上美國企業第3季度業績盈利上升,均造就美股屢創新高。究竟通脹是否暫時性的呢? 美國聯儲局前主席格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)日前表示,美國通脹走勢明顯高於過去20年平均2%的水平,雖然部分推高近期通脹的因素屬暫時性,但政府債務上升和其他潛在壓力,都令美國通脹在中長期持續高企。

美國政府面對長期財赤問題,早前亦曾動議加稅,希望增加政府收入。倘加稅議案獲得通過,或會對股市添上下行風險。原油價格高企,亦令通脹加劇,10 月底紐約期油達83美元/桶,較今年第一季收報之59美元上升40.6%。11 月初美國聯儲局、澳洲央行及英倫銀行等央行將舉行利率政策會議,全球非常關注各國利率取態,其實,今年內已啓動加息的央行亦不少,而加拿大央行亦於早前預測或在2022年中啟動加息。通脹及利率上升,不利股市。

香港上月股市上升主要是受科技股帶動,內地對科技股沒有推出新的監管措施,令市場鬆一口氣。科技股在第3季已大幅調整,騰訊及阿里巴巴等龍頭股之市盈率跌至約20倍,頗為吸引,投資者趁低吸納,港股從低位反彈,而中港股票基金較9月底亦普遍上升。不過,香港經濟始終受外圍因素影響較多,環球供應鍵緊張,加上未能與內地恢復通關,經濟增長仍存變數。港股面對挑戰實在不少。

恆大事件影響下,市場憂慮內地資金問題。恆大事件影響內房股下跌,亦拖累了內銀及保險股的表現;能源價格高企,加上停電等措施,嚴重影響內地工業生產,市場擔心影響國內經濟表現。不過,中國去年能夠率先控制疫情,經濟活動恢復較其他國家為早,且中國亦可透過減稅及降息進一步刺激內需,維持經濟增長,以現時中國十年期國債債券收益率約2.9厘為例,降息空間確實較其他國家為多。富時羅素公司於10月29日正式將中國國債納入富時世界國債指數(WGBI),市場分析這是反映國際投資者對於中國經濟長期健康發展、金融持續擴大開放的信心,有利國內金融市場持續發展。

不過,全球仍然憂慮變種病毒會再次拖累全球經濟復蘇;中美緊張關係能夠得到緩解及兩國能否攜手緩解全球經濟困局等,是市場焦點。保守型的投資者,宜增持現金,等候大市回調後入市;較進取的客戶,可留意個別的板塊,環球金融、醫療、資源等股票基金亦可考慮。基金由專業投資經理管理,投資組合可以分佈在不同地區、資產、行業、公司等,有助分散風險。

客戶如欲查詢有關基金資訊,歡迎致電致富理財熱線: 2500 9188 聯絡我們。

致富有提供債券、基金一站式投資策略,比供客戶選擇。想知道和了解更多,請即刻聯絡我哋們投資策略專員解答疑難!

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連結

投資涉及風險,以上建議只作為參考之用。致富在法律上均不負責任何人因使用本報告內資料而蒙受的任何直接或間接損失。以上報告由致富集團研究部的分析員(“此等人士”)所撰寫,此等人士均為香港證監會持牌人士。此外,截至本報告發表當日,此等人士均未於本報告中所推介的股份存有權益。



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上述報告由致富證券有限公司(「本公司」)所提供,所載之內容或意見乃根據本公司認為可靠之資料來源來編製,惟本公司並不就此等內容之準確性、完整性及正確性作出明示或默示之保證。上述報告內之所有意見均可在不作另行通知之下作出更改。上述報告的作用純粹為提供資訊,並不應視為對上述報告內提及的任何產品買賣或交易之專業推介、建議、邀請或要約。本公司及其附屬公司、僱員及其家屬及有關人士可於任何時間持有、買賣或以市場認可之方式,包括以代理人或當事人對本報告內提及的任何產品進行投資或買賣。投資附帶風險,投資者需注意投資項目之價值可升亦可跌,而過往之表現亦不一定反映未來之表現。投資者進行投資前請尋求獨立之投資意見。本公司在法律上均不負責任何人因使用本報告內資料而蒙受的任何直接或間接損失。本公司擁有此報告內容之版權,在未獲本公司許可前,不得翻印、分發或發行本報告以作任何用途。

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