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每月動向

2021年12月基金投資動向

2021年12月02日

總統拜登落實聯儲局主席提名,可能刺激市場對聯儲局加快撤回寬鬆貨幣政策的揣測升溫。新型變種病毒Omicron卻已蔓延至多個國家,各國相繼加強防疫措施。引發全球經濟復甦受阻的憂慮。

美國總統拜登周一(11月22日)提名美國聯邦儲備理事會(美聯儲)主席鮑威爾連任。美國銀行(Bank of America)利率策略主管卡巴納(Mark Cabana)表示,總統拜登落實聯儲局主席提名,可能刺激市場對聯儲局加快撤回寬鬆貨幣政策的揣測升溫。美國10月通脹率升至6.2%,聯儲局官員在11月議息會議上,亦調升對通脹的預期,可能加快減少買債步伐,並考慮提前加息。正當市場焦點集中在通脹是否屬暫時性之際,新型變種病毒Omicron卻已蔓延至多個國家,各國相繼加強防疫措施。變種病毒引發憂慮全球經濟復甦受阻,觸發11月26日環球股市出現較大調整,美國道指、標普、納指分別下跌2.51%、2.27%、2.23%;歐洲斯托克600指數下跌3.66%;香港恒指、恒生科指亦下跌2.67%、3.25%;而中國上證綜合指數則錄得跌幅0.56%。

美國聯儲局主席鮑威爾11月29日表示,新發現的變種病毒Omicron可能會給美國的通脹前景帶來額外的不確定性,病毒對「就業和經濟活動」構成了風險,而目前推高通脹的因素恐將持續到明年。投資者估計市場沒有太多的空間再增加流動性去刺激經濟,不過亦有分析表示,新一波疫情不一定對市場來說都是壞消息,因為可以降低需求,從而減少對經濟滯脹和央行過早收緊政策的擔憂。

前美國國務卿希拉莉(Hillary Clinton)早前在新加坡舉行的彭博創新經濟論壇時稱,預期拜登政府將移除部分針對中國的懲罰性關稅。美國前財政部長傑克盧(Jacob J. Lew) 表示,關稅實際上無助減輕美國消費者的負擔,現在由於通膨是一個問題,撤銷關稅可降低物價、緩解通脹。中美貿易關係若能獲得改善,將會有助經濟復甦。

變種病毒Omicron為經濟復甦添上變數,病毒引致的死亡率及重症率仍有待觀察,但多國均嚴陣以待。保守型及風險迴避的投資者,宜保留現金,待疫情明朗化後再伺機入市;持貨較輕者,可考慮適量配置環球金融、醫療、資源等股票基金,而認為內地病毒「清零」政策可以阻截新一波疫情的,則內地股票基金亦可留意。基金由專業投資經理管理,投資組合可以分佈在不同地區、資產、行業、公司等,有助分散風險。

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