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致富:商品基金續有支持 分散投資好處更多

2022年02月18日

2021年整體商品價格升幅可觀,與相關商品的投資項目也直接受惠,例如商品基金、商品期貨的表現不俗。隨着去年初新冠病毒疫苗的推出及應用,各地相繼逐步放鬆防疫措施,社區重啟帶動整體需求上升,市民消費、企業投資及政府基建支出等相繼增加,商品價格顯著上揚

2021年整體商品價格升幅可觀,與相關商品的投資項目也直接受惠,例如商品基金、商品期貨的表現不俗。隨着去年初新冠病毒疫苗的推出及應用,各地相繼逐步放鬆防疫措施,社區重啟帶動整體需求上升,市民消費、企業投資及政府基建支出等相繼增加,商品價格顯著上揚,以油價為例,倫敦布蘭特原油期貨價格由去年1月初約每桶51美元輾轉升至最近約90美元,升幅逾80%。致富財富管理部總經理張德明表示,除了剛性需求刺激商品價格上升之外,中美貿易戰、疫情反彈及地緣政治等因素,亦導致供應鏈斷裂,引發成本上漲,進一步令到此類貨品物價飆升。

環球整體國內生產總值(GDP)去年表現理想,但在需求拉動(Demand-pull)及成本推動(Cost-push)情況下,通脹上升卻令人擔憂。以美國居民消費價格指數(CPI)為例,2021年1月通脹只有1.4%、5月已上升至5%,至今年1月份達7.5%,遠遠超過既定之平均通脹率2%之目標。美國聯儲局主席鮑威爾於1月26日公布議息結果後表示,聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)傾向在3月的議息會議上加息,且不排除每次議息會議都有加息的可能。今年加息已成定局,市場看好黃金走勢,但亦有分析表示,息率上漲對黃金造成不利影響。

張氏認為,由於持有黃金不含利息回報,因此利率上升會吸引部分傾向利息收入的投資者沽售黃金,轉投其他定息投資工具,這確實會影響黃金中長期的表現。但綜觀近期通脹上升的因素中,供應鏈受一波接一波的疫情衝擊,致生產成本上升,部分企業營運困難,若此情況持續,將令經濟走弱,加上過去兩年多個國家持續量化寬鬆,加劇通脹,市場憂慮經濟將出現停滯性通脹(「滯脹」),倘滯脹出現,經濟增長跟不上通脹步伐,股票表現將會受壓及大幅波動,而利率必然跟着上揚,造成債券價格下跌,而黃金是具傳統保值的資產,將會吸引市場資金流入。

不過,張氏補充,現時全球整體疫苗接種率上升,加上各國紛紛加強研發改良疫苗,若能夠控制病毒變種,則有望改善生產成本壓力,有利經濟增長。現時投資市場存在多項變數,包括中美持續的角力,以及最近的俄羅斯、烏克蘭地緣政治事件,在分散投資風險的原則下,投資組合理應包括黃金。

黃金價格於去年之表現上落不大,但油、銅、鋁等商品則表現突出,今年是否可以繼續加碼投資呢?張氏認為,在通脹不斷升溫的情況下,預期商品價格將會持續高企。不過,由於影響商品價格的因素較多,價格表現波幅可以非常巨大,所以不太建議一般零售投資者選擇商品期貨,更應避免高槓捍的投資工具。市場上有商品基金或ETF,建議可以考慮配置,並由專業的基金經理負責投資選項及配置投資組合。

最後,張氏補充,除了投資商品基金外,一些傳統周期性的行業基金亦可作考慮,例如金融、日常消費基金等,其中亞洲區則可看高一線,尤其中國市場,因內地通脹壓力較歐美地區小,相對具有較大的空間以貨幣政策措施刺激經濟。追求定息收入的投資者,則可考慮適量配置亞洲區內具投資級別的債券基金。

開戶尊享 HK$300 獎賞優惠

由即日起,親臨致富理財中心或於網上開戶並輸入推廣碼 US099,只需符合相關條件,可享HK$300 Donki禮券!推薦親朋好友開戶,可以獲取高達HK$6,000禮券*![了解更多]

投資基金「零」負擔

透過「致富通」應用程式或致富網頁,投資基金「零」負擔,單次認購或月供計劃一律免佣,基金購金額更低至5,000港元或700美元,另購買精選保險享有高達50%折扣優惠。

致富有提供債券、基金一站式投資策略,比供客戶選擇。想知道和了解更多,請即刻聯絡我哋們投資策略專員解答疑難!

WhatsApp : [投資策略專員]

更多基金資訊、種類 和 比較:

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上述報告由致富證券有限公司(「本公司」)所提供,所載之內容或意見乃根據本公司認為可靠之資料來源來編製,惟本公司並不就此等內容之準確性、完整性及正確性作出明示或默示之保證。上述報告內之所有意見均可在不作另行通知之下作出更改。上述報告的作用純粹為提供資訊,並不應視為對上述報告內提及的任何產品買賣或交易之專業推介、建議、邀請或要約。本公司及其附屬公司、僱員及其家屬及有關人士可於任何時間持有、買賣或以市場認可之方式,包括以代理人或當事人對本報告內提及的任何產品進行投資或買賣。投資附帶風險,投資者需注意投資項目之價值可升亦可跌,而過往之表現亦不一定反映未來之表現。投資者進行投資前請尋求獨立之投資意見。本公司在法律上均不負責任何人因使用本報告內資料而蒙受的任何直接或間接損失。本公司擁有此報告內容之版權,在未獲本公司許可前,不得翻印、分發或發行本報告以作任何用途。

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