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每月動向

2023年7月基金投資動向

2023年07月03日

加息趨勢逐漸放緩,但全球經濟恐持續受通脹、高利率及地緣政治影響

美國5月居民消費價格指數(CPI),按年增幅為4%,反映通脹沒預期般厲害。通脹進一步回落,美聯儲6 月暫停加息,自2022年3月以來的連續10次加息後首次暫停下來。雖然美聯儲6月暫緩加息,但主席鮑威爾表示,通脹仍然持續在高位,並仍有上升的風險,實現2%的通脹目標還有漫長的路。

自去年10月的低位以來,標普500指數已經累升近三成,有分析認為股市已重新步入牛市,但也有人認為這只是熊市的反彈。不論如何,重要的是要遵循「乘勢」的原則。美國去年9月CPI按年增幅高見9.1% 後輾轉回落,至5月的4.0%,市場認為這預示通脹漸漸緩解,美股或有進一步反彈的條件。

中國經濟復甦面臨著挑戰。6月中國官方製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)為49.0,儘管較5月微升0.2,但在今年內已連續第三個月處於萎縮狀態。中國房地產市場仍存在問題,市場估計內地可能會繼續降低購房門檻和成本,甚至將限售限購政策放寛及擴大到核心一二線城市。除了加強對房地產市場的監管力度及房地產開發企業的資金和風險管理等措施,還需要緩解房地產市場的供需矛盾,以保持房地產市場的穩定和健康發展。市場認為中國政府應進一步降低稅收、提高消費和企業投資,以及進一步開放市場,吸引更多資金流入。

2023年上半年,香港股市表現不盡如人意。恒生指數的走勢先高後低,1月一度上升至22700點,但隨後數月中國經濟數據未如預期,恒指6月底跌至18200點水平,從高位回落了近3800點或17%。綜合上半年表現,恒指累計下跌近900點或4%。展望下半年,市場期待香港政府能夠應對外部經濟逆流的困境,同時還能穩定港內投資景氣和市場信心。市場更希望中港金融能夠適時發揮互聯互通的作用,吸引人才和資金流入香港。

目前市場關注的焦點在於中國內地可能出台的經濟刺激措施,這將對未來的趨勢產生關鍵影響,如果相關措施能夠在7月落實,可能有助於人民幣回升和港股在七月「翻身」。雖然中港市場的增長潛力和估值吸引力存在,但歐美經濟衰退的風險尚未完全解除,通脹和利率「雙高」的情況很可能將持續一段較長時間。同時,中美關係和俄烏戰事仍未緩和,仍將持續影响全球供應鏈,生產成本高踞不下。

投資者透過基金組合投資,由專業投資經理管理,投資組合可以分佈在不同地區、資產、行業、公司等,有助分散風險。客戶如欲查詢有關基金資訊,歡迎致電致富理財熱線: 2500 9188 聯絡我們。

致富有提供債券、基金一站式投資策略,供客戶選擇。想知道和瞭解更多,請即刻 按此 聯絡我們投資策略專員解答疑難。

WhatsApp : 投資策略專員

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連結

投資涉及風險,以上建議只作為參考之用。致富在法律上均不負責任何人因使用本報告內資料而蒙受的任何直接或間接損失。以上報告由致富集團研究部的分析員(“此等人士”)所撰寫,此等人士均為香港證監會持牌人士。此外,截至本報告發表當日,此等人士均未於本報告中所推介的股份存有權益。



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