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每月動向

2023年10月基金投資動向

2023年10月09日

恆生與科技指數受經濟通縮和人民幣貶值影響下跌。美股受加息與通脹壓力影響波動。但中國的經濟措施及港股的低估值帶來反彈希望

恆生指數在本月首個交易日(10月3日)曾急劇下跌超過500點,最終收於17,331點,下跌478點或2.69%;恆生科技指數收報3,817點,下跌103點或2.63%。1987年10月美國股市大跌、1997年10月亞洲金融風暴以及2007年10月美國次貸危機引發的金融海嘯,這些事件使得當時的港股大幅下跌,因此投資者通常認為10月是「股災月」。今年10月初,港股表現不佳,是否再次受到這「魔咒」的影響呢?與7月31日收盤價20,078點相比,恒生指數在兩個月內已經累計下跌超過10%。市場主要擔憂國內經濟出現通縮,內地房地產債務波及其他金融板塊,以及人民幣貶值等帶來的影響。然而,這些負面困擾正逐漸改善。內地推出了多項穩定房市的措施,也實施了降準以增加市場流動性,並下調了股票交易印花稅以降低交易成本。近日,人民幣匯率也出現了回穩上升的跡象。

最近美國股市出現了大幅波動。儘管美聯儲在9月份的政策會議後宣佈保持利率不變,但卻暗示年底前仍需加息,加上一些美聯儲官員強調經濟表現仍然強勁,市場因此預期高利率政策將會持續一段相當長的時間。美國的利率水平取決於通脹情況。8月份公佈的消費者物價指數(CPI)同比增長再次擴大,加上油價曾一度回升至較高水平,加劇了投資者對通脹問題的擔憂。幸而,9月底國際油價觸及近13個月以來的高點後出現回調,若油價能夠持續回落,將有助於緩解通脹壓力,從而改變利率走向。然而,如果地緣政治緊張再次加劇,油價可能再次上漲。

在九月底,美國政府曾一度面臨停擺危機,幸好參眾兩院及時通過了短期撥款法案,避免了政府停止運作的風險。不過,這項法案只有45天的有效期,如果在11月17日之前無法通過全年性的撥款法案,美國政府將再次面臨停擺危機。於10月3日,美國眾議院議長麥卡錫被罷免。新的議長尚未選出,這個情況將增添撥款法案獲通過的變數,對投資市場帶來一定的負面影響。

在中國推出多項穩定經濟措施的情況下,市場對內地A股的表現持樂觀態度。港股從8月開始下調,恒指至今已累計下跌兩千多點。回顧過去兩周,雖然港股大市成交金額顯著萎縮,但同時也可能反映市場沽壓減弱的情況,且相繼出現多間大型藍籌公司回購股份,這表明目前個別股票的估值具有吸引力,一旦出現利好股市消息,港股存在反彈的空間。

投資者透過基金組合投資,由專業投資經理管理,投資組合可以分佈在不同地區、資產、行業、公司等,有助分散風險。客戶如欲查詢有關基金資訊,歡迎致電致富理財熱線: 2500 9188 聯絡我們。

致富有提供債券、基金一站式投資策略,供客戶選擇。想知道和瞭解更多,請即刻 按此 聯絡我們投資策略專員解答疑難。

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連結

投資涉及風險,以上建議只作為參考之用。致富在法律上均不負責任何人因使用本報告內資料而蒙受的任何直接或間接損失。以上報告由致富集團研究部的分析員(“此等人士”)所撰寫,此等人士均為香港證監會持牌人士。此外,截至本報告發表當日,此等人士均未於本報告中所推介的股份存有權益。



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