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每月動向

2023年12月基金投資動向

2023年12月08日

美國經濟數據顯示軟著陸趨勢,通脹壓力緩解,是否降息是未來市場關注重點。

市場分析認為11月份美國的經濟數據顯示了一種軟著陸的趨勢,而非硬著陸。數據顯示,目前的利率水平已經發揮了作用,通脹壓力緩和,但對經濟增長尚未明顯影響,企業投資和消費者支出保持穩定。此外,近期油價下跌進一步強化了通脹受控的預期,同時也消除了通脹過熱的擔憂。能源價格的下降不僅減輕了企業和消費者的負擔,還提高了支出的彈性,對整體經濟有利。

儘管美聯儲主席鮑威爾最近表示目前討論降息為時尚早,但投資者普遍預期美國在明年上半年將會減息。最新的利率期貨價格顯示市場認為明年3月份有三分之二的機率將降息。美國10年期國債收益率在10月下旬攀升至5%後,最近回調至4.2%以下的水平,債券價格亦相對上漲。

然而,也有分析認為目前投資者對減息的預期過於樂觀,主要原因是全球供應鏈失衡、能源轉型和人口老化等因素,使通脹一定程度上維持在相對較高的水平。即使目前歐美的通脹有所回落,但仍然處於較高的水平,這使得多國央行陷入兩難局面,難以加快減息以刺激經濟。

明年2024年將舉行美國總統大選,分析人士普遍認為降息仍然是刺激經濟和穩定股票市場的一個助燃因素,因此市場開始重新關注短期債券,但對長期債券持中性觀點。

中美關係似乎並未因11月中兩國元首會面後起到積極緩和的作用。供應鏈失衡的情況沒有多大改善,將不利美國進一步壓低通脹。對於中國經濟,分析人士認為明年的經濟增長仍然會受到壓力,目前國內經濟主要由內需驅動,但企業信心不足及房地產市場的調整對消費復甦帶來負面影響。若中央政府把明年的GDP增長目標設定為5%或更高,相信將需要推出更多的經濟扶持政策,特別是在穩定房地產市場方面。

金價近日再創歷史新高,曾突破每安士2,130美元,超越2020年8月創下的歷史新高,惟隨後急速回落至接近每安士2,000美元。儘管市場預期美國明年將會降息,刺激了金價的上漲,但美聯儲目前的政策方向仍然是「高息將維持更長時間」。 金價近日的劇烈波動或更多地反映市場對於減息憧憬情緒的轉變。

投資者透過基金組合投資,由專業投資經理管理,投資組合可以分佈在不同地區、資產、行業、公司等,有助分散風險。客戶如欲查詢有關基金資訊,歡迎致電致富理財熱線: 2500 9188 聯絡我們。

致富有提供債券、基金一站式投資策略,供客戶選擇。想知道和瞭解更多,請即刻 按此 聯絡我們投資策略專員解答疑難。

WhatsApp : 投資策略專員

更多基金資訊、種類 和 比較:

連結

投資涉及風險,以上建議只作為參考之用。致富在法律上均不負責任何人因使用本報告內資料而蒙受的任何直接或間接損失。以上報告由致富集團研究部的分析員(“此等人士”)所撰寫,此等人士均為香港證監會持牌人士。此外,截至本報告發表當日,此等人士均未於本報告中所推介的股份存有權益。



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上述報告由致富證券有限公司(「本公司」)所提供,所載之內容或意見乃根據本公司認為可靠之資料來源來編製,惟本公司並不就此等內容之準確性、完整性及正確性作出明示或默示之保證。上述報告內之所有意見均可在不作另行通知之下作出更改。上述報告的作用純粹為提供資訊,並不應視為對上述報告內提及的任何產品買賣或交易之專業推介、建議、邀請或要約。本公司及其附屬公司、僱員及其家屬及有關人士可於任何時間持有、買賣或以市場認可之方式,包括以代理人或當事人對本報告內提及的任何產品進行投資或買賣。投資附帶風險,投資者需注意投資項目之價值可升亦可跌,而過往之表現亦不一定反映未來之表現。投資者進行投資前請尋求獨立之投資意見。本公司在法律上均不負責任何人因使用本報告內資料而蒙受的任何直接或間接損失。本公司擁有此報告內容之版權,在未獲本公司許可前,不得翻印、分發或發行本報告以作任何用途。

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