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每月動向

2024年3月基金投資動向

2024年03月05日

香港樓市辣招及内地兩會或將利好股市及經濟復甦,美國降息帶來的債券投資機會亦值得留意

美國2月29日(週四)公布的最新1月份個人消費支出(PCE)數據,按年同比上升2.4%,創下近3年來最小的增幅。儘管美聯儲表示對於降息採取謹慎態度,然而市場分析認為個人消費出現放緩,這可能促使美聯儲考慮加快降息的步伐,進一步激發市場對於今年上半年降息的期望。同時,美國國債孳息率出現回調,債券價格上升。以十年期國債為例,其孳息率在2月下旬曾升至4.35厘的水平,然而在PCE數據公布後迅速回落,並於3月1日(週五)收報至4.2厘以下。

2024年2月28日(週三),香港特區政府公布新的財政預算案,其中最引人關注的政策是全面取消香港樓市的「辣招」。樓市一直是香港的重要經濟支柱之一,賣地收入在很大程度上支撐著香港實行低稅率的基礎。多年前引入「辣招」的目的是遏制樓市的炒賣活動,以防止樓價不合理地上漲。近年來,樓價下跌的原因很多,其中主要因素是利率上升,導致置業成本增加。取消「辣招」後,香港地產股普遍上漲,短期內或有助樓價回穩。如果能夠配合其他有效的政策,吸引資金和人才流入香港,將有助香港經濟復甦。

內地股市回穩,上證綜合指數再次突破企穩3,000點的關口。香港恒生指數在農曆新年假期前收盤報15,746點,隨著內地股市回穩,近日曾一度上升至16,844點,在16,500點左右徘徊。同時,香港股市的整體成交金額也有回升的跡象,或有助鞏固大市。中國即將舉行全國政協十四屆二次會議和十四屆全國人大二次會議(即「兩會」),市場期望中央推出更多利好經濟復甦政策,帶動經濟增長。

地緣政治的不穩定確實為股市帶來了許多不確定因素,投資者期望衝突能夠盡快平息。俄烏戰事已經持續了近兩年,再加上去年的以巴衝突,改變了貨物和原油供應鏈,推高了其價格,也推高了整體通脹。2024年是總統大選年,美國的大選將在2024年年底舉行,而俄羅斯的總統大選則將在3月開始。最近一些北約成員曾表示不排除西方派兵到烏克蘭的可能性,引起了盟友間的強烈反應。德國、英國等北約盟國紛紛表態拒絕,美國白宮也發表聲明表示不會派兵到烏克蘭作戰。對於俄烏戰事是否出現轉機並有望緩和,目前仍存在著許多不確定性。投資者應評估風險並密切關注局勢的發展。

配置投資級別債券基金仍是近期市場焦點之一。市場普遍認為美聯儲在今年內下調利率只是時間問題,利率下降對債券價格有利。投資者透過配置投資級別債券基金,除了可以獲得相對穩定的派息收入外,還可以在美聯儲進一步實施降息政策時,享受債券價格上升所帶來的利潤。

投資者透過基金組合投資,由專業投資經理管理,投資組合可以分佈在不同地區、資產、行業、公司等,有助分散風險。客戶如欲查詢有關基金資訊,歡迎致電致富理財熱線: 2500 9188 聯絡我們。



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上述報告由致富證券有限公司(「本公司」)所提供,所載之內容或意見乃根據本公司認為可靠之資料來源來編製,惟本公司並不就此等內容之準確性、完整性及正確性作出明示或默示之保證。上述報告內之所有意見均可在不作另行通知之下作出更改。上述報告的作用純粹為提供資訊,並不應視為對上述報告內提及的任何產品買賣或交易之專業推介、建議、邀請或要約。本公司及其附屬公司、僱員及其家屬及有關人士可於任何時間持有、買賣或以市場認可之方式,包括以代理人或當事人對本報告內提及的任何產品進行投資或買賣。投資附帶風險,投資者需注意投資項目之價值可升亦可跌,而過往之表現亦不一定反映未來之表現。投資者進行投資前請尋求獨立之投資意見。本公司在法律上均不負責任何人因使用本報告內資料而蒙受的任何直接或間接損失。本公司擁有此報告內容之版權,在未獲本公司許可前,不得翻印、分發或發行本報告以作任何用途。

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